Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Stats show Kawhi Leonard bring LeBron James-type offensive production to Spurs - Corpus Christi Caller Times

â€" When the San Antonio Spurs acquired the draft rights to Kawhi Leonard last summer, they did so because of the potential he had as a defensive stopper. Leonard was a do-it-all wing defender for the San Diego State Aztecs, often guarding point guards and post players in the same game. At 6-foot-7, Leonard had the size to handle the more physical players in the nation and the length and quickness to bother guards like Kemba Walker, the undersized UConn star who went six picks before Leonard.

With a lack of plus defenders on the roster, Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich decided to make Leonard his most trusted perimeter defender right away. Since the season began Leonard has been asked to guard all-around players like LeBron James and Joe Johnson, cream of the crop scorers like Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony, offense initiators like Chris Paul and Deron Williams, off-screen savants like Kevin Martin and even good ole Dirk Nowitzki, who has had just about everyone in the world try to defend him at some point (Leonard held him to 0-for-5 shooting on five possessions).

This baptism by fire routine is understandable. With his physical skills alone Leonard figured to be a better defensive matchup on those players than anybody on the Spurs roster outside of Manu Ginobili, who was out for most of those games. However, Leonard's results have not matched his reputation to this point in his young NBA career. According to Syngery Sports Technology, Leonard has allowed .881 points per possession this season, which ranks him in the bottom 36 percent of the league (303rd overall).

Leonard's been so bad on defense this season that teams have actually picked on him by calling isolations for his man. In one-on-one situations Leonard has allowed 47 percent shooting and .932 points per possession, which ranks in the 18th percentile (higher is better). Leonard has also had trouble guarding the pick-and-roll, where he has allowed 49 percent shooting and .917 points per possession, ranking him in the 16th percentile. The only situation where Leonard has been good on D this season is when guarding post-ups, where he is excellent.

There will certainly be improvement for Leonard as a defender down the line but what I find interesting is that after being described as a stopper coming out of college, he's actually been far better as an offensive player for the Spurs. Leonard can still be a good defender - he has gambled for steals way too often this year, which is the source of his struggles - but he has blown his offensive expectations out of the water in the first few months of his pro career.

When you look at the Spurs' offense you see players with clearly defined roles. Tony Parker (rim attacker, distributor), Manu Ginobili (creator, shooter), Tim Duncan (post player, defensive focal point), DeJuan Blair (rebound specialist) and so on. With the majority of their reserves being spot-up shooters the one type of player that they were missing was somebody that could actively move around the floor offensively and plug in the gaps in the defense to get to the basket. While guys like Matt Bonner and Gary Neal roam the perimeter waiting for a spot-up opportunity Leonard is able to take advantage of a defense more focused on stopping San Antonio's three-point shooting by sneaking behind them to attack the offensive glass and by slashing into the lane when Parker drives, waiting for a drop off pass.

According to NBA.com/stats, of the 326 shots that Leonard has taken this season, 165 have come at the rim. That's good for a whopping 50.6% of his attempts. Leonard hasn't taken more than 25 shots from any other spot on the floor. While their roles are undoubtedly different, not even LeBron James has taken half of his shots at the basket this season. What's most impressive about Leonard's constant assault of the paint is that it is rarely by way of the dribble. Leonard is so good without the ball in his hands that he's managed 165 shots at the basket without having to isolate on the perimeter and drive like so many of today's wing players do. For wing players with at least 50 possessions on cuts to the basket, Leonard ranks fourth in basketball by producing 1.365 points per possessions on 65% shooting.

A good chunk of those buckets at the rim come off of offensive rebounds, where Leonard is elite. Out of all the small forwards in the league that have played 50 games this season, Leonard ranks third in offensive rebounds rate. Leonard produces 1.138 points per possession on offensive put backs, which is better than guys like Chris Bosh, Serge Ibaka and even Kevin Love.

By getting to the basket so often, Leonard is already a very efficient weapon for the Spurs. But he's recently added an element to his game. After shooting 29 percent from 3-point range in college, nobody would have expected Leonard to be an above average long-range shooter this season. But alas, Gregg Popovich poured some of his magic three-point pixie dust on Leonard's head at the beginning of February and he's shot 45 percent from deep since. His current hot streak has him up to 38 percent on the season; 37 of Leonard's 85 three-point attempts have come from the corners, and he's hit 49 percent of those shots.

Albeit on a 1,000 less offensive possessions, Leonard has produced the same amount of points per possession overall this season as LeBron James. For players with at least 390 offensive possessions this season, Leonard has ranked 14th overall in offensive production. Again, few possess Leonard's skill set to where they can have such a tremendous impact without the ball. You have your Ray Allen's of the world that can dominate games by shooting 3s while coming off of screens but there are fewer guys who have a knack for heading towards the basket when they could just as easily stand at the three-point line and wait to shoot.

Leonard reminds me a lot of Matt Barnes, a solid defensive player that thrives in the open spaces on the floor and is an excellent rebounding small forward (he's right behind Leonard in offensive rebound rate). That may not sound like a sexy comparison but realize that Barnes just started a top flight point guard in Ramon Sessions. Since then he's played largely the same game that Leonard is playing for the Spurs. The impressive part is that Barnes is 32 years old and has had years of experience to refine his duties as an off ball threat. Leonard has known where to be on the floor since the day he put on the silver and black and he's already slightly more polished than Barnes.

While more hyped rookies like Jimmer Fredette and Walker struggle to figure out their roles in this league, Leonard is already finding his niche for one of the top teams in basketball. Leonard's feel for the game is extremely uncommon for a rookie and the Spurs were the perfect fit for him. With such a well-crafted offense in place, Leonard has been given the freedom to act as San Antonio's X-acto knife, cutting through the defense surreptitiously and carving out a winning approach for the Spurs.

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