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NBA LeBron James 40,000 point odds: Bet on when he’ll do it and how he’ll score it


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For the next 20 years or so, whenever someone asks a question about an NBA all-time record, just guess LeBron James and you'll probably be right.

James, already the all-time leading scorer in NBA history, is closing in on 40,000 regular season points, which is an incredible landmark.

Two of the top online sportsbooks — DraftKings and FanDuel — are offering markets on exactly when LeBron will get that magical basket and what kind of shot it will come on.

As we enter the NBA All-Star break this weekend in Indiana (LeBron playing for a record 20th time) the 39-year-old Lakers star has 39,868 points. That's 132 points away from 40K.

Just when and how will James get to 40K? Read on as we examine the odds and discuss our best bet recommendations on when and how King James will make history.

LeBron James 40,000-point odds: When will he do it?

Let's do some math. Don't worry this isn't hard. James is 132 points away and currently averaging 24.8 points a game - his lowest point total since his rookie year with the Cavs.

We will round that off to 25 points. Do that and it tells us that James will cross 40,000 points six games from now (6x25 is 150 points). But could he do it sooner?

Or do we need to be thinking of an injury situation? James is 39. He's been dealing with an ankle injury and he didn't play in Wednesday's game over the Jazz. The Lakers would probably never say it, but a healthy James for the All-Star Game is more important than a regular season game against the Jazz.

When the Lakers come back Thursday night, they play at Golden State. Remember, those two played an epic 145-144 OT game a few weeks ago. Then the Lakers are home for the Spurs and star rookie Victor Wembanyama.

James isn't missing those two games.

Then the Lakers are at Phoenix, which features superstar Kevin Durant. James is playing in that one too, then back in LA on Feb. 28 against the Clippers. The Clippers have been one of the best teams in the NBA. No way James sits for that one.

Now it gets interesting. On Leap Day, Feb. 29, the Lakers host the Wizards. The 9-45 Wizards. The woeful Wizards, the second-worst team in the East Wizards. It's the second game of a back-to-back. The Lakers will be big favorites and could probably beat the Wizards with their B team. So maybe LeBron takes the night off.

Because look at those four games before that. We're projecting LeBron to score 25 points in all of those, but could he go off for 40 against the Suns or the Warriors? Suddenly that skews the math. Let's say he's 10-15 points away from 40,000 heading into the Wizards game. No way he plays.

After a day off, the Lakers play the defending NBA champion Nuggets in a primetime broadcast on Saturday, March 2. This is the moment.

DraftKings Sportsbook has its LeBron 40,000 watch under Record Breakers. It lists the Denver game at +200 for the milestone to happen, followed by the Thunder game (March 4) +235 and the Wizards game (Feb. 29) at +380.

FanDuel Sportsbook also sees the Nuggets game as the moment for history, listing it at +310, with the Thunder game +250, and the Wizards game +440. Interestingly, they also have the Clippers game at +750, which would mean LeBron would average 30 plus points in his next four games.

LeBron James 40,000-point odds: What kind of shot will net history?

DraftKings and FanDuel are offering odds on what kind of shot LeBron will use to score his 40,000th point.

DraftKings has it broken down in three methods:

  • Field Goal -160
  • Three-Pointer +260
  • Free throw +390

    • FanDuel has it split apart differently:

  • Layup +175
  • Three Pointer +270
  • Other +300
  • Free Throw +420
  • Dunk +650

    • When will LeBron get 40,000? My bet is the Nuggets game. Even if the Lakers have to manipulate the management for LeBron, there will be pressure on him to do it then.

    How? All I can say is everyone in the arena and the players will know what's coming. Remember how A-Rod and Jeter each hit home runs for their 3,000th hit? LeBron is getting 40,000 on a dunk.

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