Here’s how LeBron will affect the NBA free agent class

The 2024 NBA Finals are rapidly approaching, and that means the offseason and free agency are right around the corner. Twenty-six of the NBA's 30 teams are already focused on offseason planning, including the 2024 NBA draft and analyzing this year's crop of free agents.

The unofficial start of NBA free agency is June 30, when teams can begin negotiating contracts with players on other teams, and verbal agreements are often reported. Those agreements can become official beginning on July 6.

The 2024 NBA free agent class – including unrestricted free agents, restricted free agents, and players with club or player options – is not as deep or as star-studded as previous years' classes. However, there are still some very big names (potentially) available, including likely future Hall of Famers like LeBron James, Paul George, and Klay Thompson.

In this article, we will take a look at some of the best players available in free agency this offseason, and discuss the ideal landing spots for those players. These are not predictions of where players will end up signing, but rather what teams make the most sense in terms of roster construction, salary cap space, and the ability to compete for a championship. We are also focusing only on free agents and not on potential trade targets, where more big-name players such as Jimmy Butler or Donovan Mitchell could change teams.

Which NBA teams have the most cap space?

Before we go too far with matching free agents and teams, it's worth quickly summarizing which teams have the most financial flexibility to pursue free agents this summer. For a more in-depth summary, check out these detailed spending power projections from Spotrac.

According to Spotrac, there are six teams that are currently expected to be under the salary cap when free agency begins. Those teams are the Detroit Pistons, Philadelphia 76ers, Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, and San Antonio Spurs. The Charlotte Hornets and Toronto Raptors could end up having cap space depending on what decisions they make with some current players.

Those are the most relevant teams to consider as landing spots for the top free agents if they change teams. Outside of those teams, free agents would only get contracts exceeding one of the mid-level exceptions (non-taxpayer or taxpayer) by re-signing with their current teams, although they could end up on a new team via sign-and-trade. It's also possible that other teams could get under the salary cap if they trade, waive, and/or renounce other players, but that would be rather surprising and quite difficult to project.

As such, to keep this exercise realistic, those are the six to eight teams to focus on for any discussion of the top free agent landing spots, along with each player's current team.

Ideal landing spots for top NBA free agents

There are several good sources to find a complete list of the 2024 NBA free agents, such as Spotrac or NBA.com. Some of the top players include LeBron James, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Klay Thompson. Let's see where the best fit for these star players would be.

LeBron James – Philadelphia 76ers

One of the biggest storylines this offseason will be what King James decides to do about his next team and contract. Whichever team with whom LeBron signs this summer is likely to be the team with whom he ends his historic Hall of Fame career. James has a $51.4M player option he is expected to decline, even if he intends to return to the Lakers. He would likely look to sign a new deal for two or three years of max money, which could end up being his final contract.

The biggest question for James is how he will prioritize competing for his fifth ring versus the other benefits of playing for the Lakers, such as his lifestyle, business, and family interests in the Los Angeles area. We can't pretend to know how James will balance those priorities, nor would we venture to suggest what he should do. But we would at least hope that winning another ring before he retires is his top priority, if only because it would be the most fun and interesting scenario.

If competing for rings remains his top priority, then returning to the Lakers does not look like the best fit. While the Lakers are just one year removed from making a run to the Western Conference Finals, they won only one playoff game this year and have very little flexibility to improve the team. They do still have Anthony Davis and a decent core around their star duo, and the aura surrounding that franchise always helps with attracting talent, but it's still hard to see the Lakers returning to serious contention in the loaded Western Conference.

James signing with the 76ers or forcing a sign-and-trade to another contender in the Eastern Conference like the Cavaliers or Knicks would make more sense to maximize his chances of returning to the NBA Finals. Of those options, joining forces with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey in Philadelphia would be the best fit. 76ers general manager Daryl Morey has the cap space to sign James outright to a max contract, while any other contending team would need to shed some of its existing core to make room for James.

With an elite lead guard, wing, and big, the trio of Maxey, James, and Embiid is the picture-perfect core around which to build a champion. The 76ers could use their remaining cap space and draft capital (five tradable first-round picks and additional pick swaps) to surround that core with shooters and defenders, and that team would look very scary to the rest of the Eastern Conference – and the rest of the NBA.

Paul George – Oklahoma City Thunder

The 76ers would also make a lot of sense as a landing spot for George, for many of the same reasons as James. The same could be said for just about every available star this summer, but obviously Morey can only acquire one max player along with Embiid and Maxey, so we need to look elsewhere for the rest of these ideal landing spots.

It seems like the writing is on the wall for Paul George and the Clippers to part ways this summer, mainly because the Clippers have had opportunities to extend George and have not yet done so. If the trio of George, James Harden, and Kawhi Leonard could stay healthy for an entire season (or more importantly, postseason), then returning to the Clippers might still be George's best chance to compete for the ring that has eluded him throughout his career. But that's a pretty big "if," and returning to L.A. might just not be an option.

The Thunder are the only other team that is a legitimate title contender and also has the financial flexibility and assets to pursue a max player like George. They would need to clear some additional cap room to create a max slot, which they could do by moving on from players like Josh Giddey and Kenrich Williams. That should not be too difficult, so it's realistic to think the Thunder could pursue a max player this summer.

The bigger question is whether it makes sense for Oklahoma City GM Sam Presti to stray from his organic team-building philosophy by consolidating assets for a player like George. The Thunder are already way ahead of schedule in their development, and there is good reason to think that another year of growth from players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams is enough improve on this season's Western Conference Semifinals exit.

The argument for the Thunder signing George is simple: no matter how bright the future may look, or how wide open the championship window might seem, nothing in this league is ever guaranteed. A major injury, an off-the-court issue, a disgruntled player – plenty of things can premature close a championship window. This Thunder team could be just one player away from winning a title as early as next season, and it's hard not to aggressively pursue an opportunity like that, especially when it might not cost much in terms of long-term flexibility.

Sliding Paul George into Josh Giddey's spot in this lineup would be a significant upgrade to this team, especially in the playoffs, where George's shooting and defense would be a perfect fit alongside OKC's young core. George also could flourish in a situation where he doesn't need to be a team's first or even second option, especially as he enters his mid-to-late 30s.

Tyrese Maxey – Philadelphia 76ers

Let's keep this one simple – Tyrese Maxey is not going anywhere but Philadelphia, nor should he. His ascension in Philadelphia has been meteoric. In his first season as the team's lead guard in 2024, he made his first All Star team, won the Most Improved Player award, and proved to be the best running mate Joel Embiid has ever had in his career. Those two have a strong relationship, and Maxey is beloved by the passionate fanbase in Philadelphia. His infectious energy, playing style and personality is a perfect fit for that city, which has not seen a lead guard like him since the great Allen Iverson.

The 76ers also own Maxey's bird rights and can pay him more than any other team. Even if he tried to sign elsewhere as a restricted free agent, the 76ers would almost certainly match any other contract offer he received. Maxey will likely sign a five-year max contract worth north of $200 million, and there is no reason to consider any other scenarios for him. The emerging 23-year-old star is likely to supplant the aging Embiid as the 76ers best player during the course of that five-year contract.

Pascal Siakam – Indiana Pacers

Pascal Siakam is another player whose best fit is to return to his current team. He has been a great fit alongside Tyrese Haliburton, helping take the Pacers' elite offense to an even higher level and leading Indiana on an improbable run to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Pacers are also very unlikely to let Siakam walk away this summer after making a big trade to acquire him at the trade deadline this season.

If Siakam wanted to leave Indiana, there could be some other intriguing fits like the Thunder, Orlando Magic, or San Antonio Spurs. The Thunder would be the most intriguing of those teams, for similar reasons as discussed above with Paul George. The Spurs are still in rebuilding mode, so signing Siakam doesn't really fit their timeline. Staying in the Eastern Conference also makes more sense if Siakam wants his best chance to return to the NBA Finals during his prime. The Magic would be a less ideal basketball fit given their glut of forwards including Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

Given those other options, and Siakam's seamless fit with the Pacers this season, re-signing with Indiana makes the most sense.

OG Anunoby – New York Knicks

The narrative for OG Anunoby is similar to the one for Siakam. He proved to be a perfect fit in New York after the Knicks swung a mid-season trade to acquire him. The Knicks were 20-3 in the regular season in games Anunoby played, and 6-2 in the playoffs (ignoring Game 7 against the Pacers, when he only played 4:41 because of injury).

The biggest knock on Anunoby, of course, is the injuries. He missed 27 games during the regular season and five in the playoffs (including that Game 7). Anunoby has dealt with injuries throughout this career, and has only played more than 50 games once in the last four seasons. But that should not stop the Knicks from committing to him long-term.

Anunoby is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. He was an All-Defense Second Team member last season who likely would have made another All-Defense team this season if he played enough games to qualify. He is also a solid offensive player and floor spacer who has shot over 38% from three on over five attempts per game in each of the last two seasons.

Anunoby is a perfect fit for the Knicks' play style and team personality under Tom Thibodeau. That fit and the Knicks' performance with him on the court is too good for him to walk away.

Klay Thompson – Orlando Magic

This one is definitely the most "out there" player/team fit on this list so far, so let's dig into the thinking behind it.

Klay Thompson surely wants to stay in Golden State with his 'splash brother' Stephen Curry, but there is no guarantee that can happen unless Thompson takes a significant paycut. He made $38 million last season on the last year of a five-year, $190 million max deal he signed in 2019. Given his age and injury history, nobody is going to give him a max deal this time around, even on a short-term deal. Thompson reportedly turned down a two-year, $48 million contract offer by the Warriors before the 2023-24 season, and he might not get a better offer this summer.

Thompson certainly could return to the Warriors on a very team-friendly deal and take a "hometown discount" to finish his career with the only team for which he has ever played. That is the more sentimental outcome and probably the most likely outcome. But the Warriors haven't exactly been serious title contenders for the last two years (even if injury played a big part in that), and could anyone really blame Thompson for leaving the Warriors to get a lot more money somewhere else?

Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) drives the ball past Utah Jazz forward Brice Sensabaugh (8) during the first half of an NBA basketball, game Sunday, April 7, 2024, in San Francisco.AP

That's where the Magic could be an intriguing fit, surprising as that move might be. Orlando has the cap space to offer him something close to the two-year $24 million per year deal that the Warriors reportedly offered. A two-year deal would also fit the Magic's current timeline. They will have to extend two of their young building blocks – Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner – next offseason and then Paolo Banchero the following summer. Committing big money to a veteran free agent for more than two years could complicate those deals.

Thompson also fills arguably the Magic's biggest need, which is three-point shooting. They ranked 24th in three-point shooting this season at 35.2% and they were the only playoff team ranked in the bottom 10. Their three-point shooting also dropped to 30.9% in the playoffs when the defense gets ratcheted. They desperately need floor spacers to make life easier for Banchero and Wagner, and Thompson remains one of the most lethal outside shooters in NBA history. He would also bring a veteran presence and championship pedigree to the fourth-youngest team in NBA last season.

If returning to the Warriors isn't an option, which feels like a real possibility, then elevating an ascending young Magic team in the less competitive Eastern Conference might be Thompson's best alternative.

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