The 2025 NBA offseason could bring about sweeping changes to the basketball landscape.
Just don't expect to see many of these major moves in free agency.
Some of the top players who would have been on the market inked new extensions ahead of time. While there are still a few difference-makers on the board, there isn't much cap space available if they wanted to change teams. The Brooklyn Nets have plenty of wiggle room and the Detroit Pistons have pathways to flexibility, but that's about it, particularly among teams who could have any win-now intentions.
Free agency shouldn't be a complete dud, but don't look for it to send stars to all different parts of the NBA galaxy.
James Harden, Los Angeles Clippers (Player Option) 1 of 5While James Harden's season ended with a whimper (a seven-point, 2-of-8 showing in their elimination-game loss), it held an impressive volume for long enough before that to imagine L.A. wants to extend this partnership.
The Clippers handled last summer's loss of Paul George just fine, relying on elite defense and the combined offensive skills of Harden, Kawhi Leonard and Norm Powell to remain a factor in the West. L.A.'s 50 wins were fifth-best in the conference and only one fewer than the final season of the Harden-Leonard-George triumvirate.
The Clippers probably won't want to follow the lead of a couple of 30-somethings too much longer, particularly since they have nothing in the way of young, developing talent churning through the roster. Still, it would make sense for them to want Harden on the same trajectory as Leonard, meaning a new contract that runs through the 2026-27 season.
Harden, who has a $36.3 million player option for next season, played well enough to opt out in anticipation of receiving a slight pay increase. He just shouldn't plan on trying to find that money elsewhere, since he'd be an awkward fit for Brooklyn or Detroit.
Look for the 35-year-old to run it back on something close to a two-year, $75 million deal.
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers (Player Option) 2 of 5LeBron James has bucked the aging curve better than anyone in basketball history, but the 40-year-old won't actually play forever.
In fact, he has said he's not sure whether he's up for another 82-game marathon or not.
"I don't know. I don't have an answer to that," James told reporters after L.A.'s opening-round loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. "Something I'll sit down with my family, my wife and my support group and kind of just talk through it and see what happens. And just have a conversation with myself on how long I want to continue to play. I don't know the answer to that right now, to be honest."
He may not be the planet's best player anymore, but the fact that he remains a top 10-ish player at his age is astonishing. It also gives him some wiggle room should he decide to take his talents elsewhere.
He holds a $52.6 million player option for next season, per Spotrac, and there could be some interest in simply picking it up. If he made clear this would be his last go-round, the Lakers could celebrate his every step on a season-long farewell tour, which would conveniently include an L.A.-based All-Star Game.
Maybe he's not interested in putting that much finality to it, though. Not with his son, Bryce James, potentially becoming draft-eligible in 2026. LeBron lasting long enough to team up with Bronny James is incredible, but suiting up alongside both of his sons would certainly hold some appeal.
Look for James to give himself a bit of wiggle room, then, by declining his option and re-signing with the Lakers on a two-year, roughly $105 million deal with a player option on the second season.
Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors (Restricted) 3 of 5The Golden State Warriors once believed in Jonathan Kuminga enough to make him the seventh overall pick of the 2021 draft.
It might be a stretch to say they've totally bailed on that belief since, but it's telling that they banished him from the rotation once Jimmy Butler came aboard until injuries forced Kuminga back onto the hardwood.
It's hard to imagine the 22-year-old would willingly sign up for more of this treatment. Of course, because he's a restricted free agent, the decision surrounding his next move won't entirely be his. He can sign where he pleases—though he'll feel the same cap squeeze as everyone—but the Warriors will have the option to match any offer sheet.
The Nets have most often been mentioned as Kuminga's potential poacher, and Brooklyn still seems his likeliest landing spot if he heads elsewhere.
The Nets have the most money to spend, plus they have clear needs for creation, scoring, athleticism and general potential.
The questions, then, are two-fold: What will it cost to fend off the Warriors, and would this require a sign-and-trade to get down? The answers are unknown at this time, but it feels like he'll get less than the $30 million-plus salary he reportedly sought before the season, and it would be easiest for everyone involved if a sign-and-trade comes together.
Even if Golden State is less than convinced Kuminga is a long-term fit for the team, it will want to recoup something for the asset.
Look for the Warriors to work out a sign-and-trade with the Nets that gets him a four-year deal in the $100 million range and delivers the Dubs three-and-D ace Cameron Johnson.
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Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves (Player Option) 4 of 5Catch the Minnesota Timberwolves on the right night—usually one in which their offense is sputtering—and you might find yourself wondering aloud whether Naz Reid is actually their second-best player.
And that's an enormous testament to the sixth-year big man, considering he's a full-time reserve who's fifth on the team in salary (with a wide gap separating him from the top four).
The 25-year-old has clearly outplayed the $15 million player option he holds for next season, but has he priced himself out of Minnesota in the process?
Reid won't be a hard sell to potential suitors. Defenses don't have a great way to handle him. He'll pull bigs past their comfort zone with a three-ball that's found its mark at a 39.5 percent clip since the start of last season. He'll zip past the slower ones, too, as he's a comfortable and capable driver. He can also overpower smaller players in the post and consistently convert close-range scoring chances.
He is someone who, frankly, seems capable of doing even more should he ever find a bigger role than his current gig. It's just tricky for the Timberwolves to offer that, since they have more accomplished and much higher-compensated players in the frontcourt with Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle, the latter of whom holds his own $30.9 million player option.
Minnesota will do what it can to keep Reid, but Brooklyn and Detroit can test that commitment with an aggressive offer. It still probably won't be enough to lure him away from the Wolves.
The Nets and Pistons have centers already (Nic Claxton and Jalen Duren, respectively) and other, more pressing needs to fill with their cap space. Plus, Minnesota already planned for a healthy Reid raise when its cleared up some of its financial congestion with the Karl-Anthony Towns trade.
The Timberwolves might have to make more cuts this summer—Nickeil Alexander-Walker could be a name to watch in free agency—but it will find a way to keep Reid, probably on a four-year pact worth a shade over $100 million.
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers (Unrestricted) 5 of 5With the Indiana Pacers potentially on the cusp of a second consecutive trek to the Eastern Conference Finals, it's only logical to assume they'll try to keep this core together. Factor in the finances, though, and this situation is less certain than it seems.
Indiana is close enough to the luxury-tax line that a new deal for Myles Turner would almost certainly push the payroll past it. The Pacers last paid the tax in 2005, and according to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, "there are no plans to go into it next season."
However, that doesn't mean they'll definitely find themselves without the 29-year-old's unicorn blend of shot-blocking and floor-spacing at the center spot. In fact, Windhorst added that "the Pacers absolutely want to keep Turner."
He will be costly to keep, though. He just became only the fourth player ever to average at least two triples and two blocks. And he did so while converting a career-best 39.6 percent of his long-range looks. Even in a cash-strapped market, he should find significantly better than his current $19.9 million salary.
Indiana needs to find that money somewhere, and it could look to the trade market to help clear it. The Pacers don't really have bad money on the books, though, so if they won't pay the tax, they might have to sacrifice a useful role player like Bennedict Mathurin, Obi Toppin or T.J. McConnell.
Look for them to make the necessary cuts to bring Turner back on a four-year deal in the $120 million range.
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